Despite a strong opening to 2010 for the solar market, manufacturers are now bracing themselves for further price declines and stiffer competition. As module makers prepare for a renewed trench war based on production scale, inverter players aim to stake their competitive territory based on performance improvements and novel architectures. A new report from Lux Research titled ‘Sorting Solar Module and Inverter Manufacturers on the Lux Innovation Grid‘ applies Lux Research‘ proprietary Lux Innovation Grid to assesses the likely winners and losers in the renewed solar shakeout.

“As the solar industry braces for a renewed shakeout, identifying which module- and inverter-makers have the greatest value is more important than ever,” said Jason Eckstein, a research associate at Lux Research and the report’s lead author. “The Lux Innovation Grid provides an intuitive tool for assessing the performance of individual companies and the technology space in which they compete.”

Clear Leaders Emerge among CIGS and CPV Module-makers

While familiar trends continue to advance in crystalline silicon (x-Si), thin-film silicon (TF-Si) and CdTe, clear leaders have finally emerged in CIGS and CPV. Among CIGS players, Q-Cells subsidiary Solibro and start-up Miasol have moved into the Lux Innovation Grid’s ‘dominant‘ quadrant. Meanwhile, in the CPV category, Amonix has broken away from its competitors followed by Concentrix and Solaria, while the rest of the CPV field struggles.

Technology Improvements Provide an Edge among Inverter Players

Despite their lead in the large commercial-scale and utility-scale segments, SMA and Siemens are technologically surpassed by innovative companies like Advanced Energy and Satcon, which could both easily move into the ‘dominant’ quadrant with greater scale and execution.

Start-ups Appearing in the Lux Innovation Grid’s ‘dominant’ Quadrant Are Likely IPO Candidates

Amonix, Enphase, and Abound Solar have all met critical milestones over the past year and are in strong positions to launch successful IPOs in the coming year. Enphase is likely to move the most quickly, having already reached high sales volumes in the inverter market.

Further Information: Lux Research (http://www.luxresearchinc.com/)