Significant progress has recently been made in the photovoltaics industry, some at the technology level and others related to regulatory, financial and market issues that affect producers, integrators and consumers in a positive way. And PV demand in the U.S.A. is expected to rise. It is expected that the U.S. PV market will surpass markets in Europe to become the world’s top PV market in the near future.
By John Williams
The past few years have seen much progress and have been very interesting for customers, integrators and manufacturers in the Photovoltaics (PV) industry. New technologies, products, incentives, large wholesale cost reductions and federal funding are all working together to paint a better picture for the customer and provide more business opportunities for the integrator and manufacturer. It is estimated that U.S. grid-tied PV demand was around 440 MW in 2009 which was a 30% increase over the prior year in spite of a deep recession. The growth was driven in part by utility projects but the main source of growth was in residential installations, and in projects for local and state governments which were largely driven by economic stimulus funding. PV demand in the U.S.A. is expected to climb to 800 MW in 2010. It is expected that by 2012 the U.S. PV market will surpass markets in Europe to become the world’s top PV market with a demand of more than 1,500 MW.
Most PV products sold in the U.S. today come from China where in spite of strong demand, manufacturers are struggling to make a profit, partially because of low prices and excess supply. In 2007, silicon solar product was experiencing new and unmet demands and during this time of short supply it costs nearly US$3.50 per watt to buy a container-sized order of A-grade U.L.-Listed modules from a mainline China manufacturer. The manufacturers were enjoying large profits, but by summer 2009 selling prices had dropped by 50% before rising slightly in the fall under increased European demand which was driven by the upcoming expirations or reductions of key solar incentives. The wholesale price is now falling again and is now at a point well under half of the 2007 price. This means that retail prices can and will fall further, which in turn may further encourage demand.
Add in the uncapped 30% federal tax credits for residential and commercial installations and the expanding Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) requirements that are instrumental in driving the growing REC (Renewable Energy Credit) market, and we see that the solar panel industry is poised to continue strong growth with or without improvements in technology.
But technology is progressing and improvements are being made, regardless. Conversion efficiency is rising, module assembly processes are becoming more efficient and costs may fall yet again.
More importantly, new technology means that new markets will be created or reached by solar energy providers.
Big Box Solar
One of the newest technologies, microinverters, promises to make solar PV systems into a DIY (Do It Yourself) product. In California, user-installable PV panels are already on sale at Lowe’s stores and The Home Depot. While at the present time it is still a requirement in California that a licensed electrician makes the final connection, however, the handy homeowner can do nearly all of the installation work and it is expected that true, fully self-installable solar panel systems are just around the corner. These first retail DYI panels made by Suntech, are sold to users along with after market microinverters made by Enphase, which converts each individual solar panel’s DC (Direct Current) into AC (Alternating Current) at the solar panel instead of at a central inverter, which deals with an array of PV panels. The microinverter dramatically simplifies the installation of the PV panel system.
By using only AC power on the roof, safety issues related to high-voltage DC power have been eliminated in favor of AC power, which while still dangerous is far less lethal than high voltage DC power in the case of an accident. Furthermore, the distributed inverter design of the microinverter technology can allow a shaded panel to drop out of the matrix and therefore the underperforming panel is kept from degrading the entire array. Right now the Enphase microinverters are sold as an after-market add-on along with the DIY panels but in mid 2010 several manufacturers will begin incorporating the microinverter technology directly into the panel manufacturing process. Look for innovative integrated AC-power panels from PV panel manufacturing companies such as Suntech, BrightWatts and Solar Panels Plus in mid to late 2010.
BIPV
Building-integrated PV is a technology that allows a solar panel to become part of the building instead of mounting it on the building. Solar roof materials made from both thin film and crystalline silicon are starting to show up in both new construction as well as in retrofit and remodeling applications. There are PV roofing and building material solutions available for metal roofs, shingles, tiles, exterior siding and even walkways.
In some cases, the BIPV materials are used in ways that not only generate electricity, but also replace costly building materials, which can partly offset the building cost. In other cases, the BIPV products also act in a secondary energy-saving capacity such as when installed in place of awnings over a window to provide passive solar shading. Using this type of application may reduce the cooling costs of the building in the summer and may also reduce the size and cost of the air conditioning system itself.
The efficiency levels of the BIPV materials, which have always been lower than most competing PV technologies, are on the rise. Once a product in the 6% efficiency range, it is now common to see BIPV products from leaders such as Uni-Solar, DuPont, Dow Solar and others touting efficiency ratings of ten percentor more.
Thin-film PV
Thin film has had some technology improvements and now comes in a variety of types like amorphous silicon, Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) and Copper Indium (Gallium) Diselenide (CIS or CIGS) to name a few, some of which do not use silicon and are immune to solar silicon shortages. Amorphous silicon is a fine silicon powder applied over a substrate via a vapor deposition process. Only a tiny amount of silicon, by comparison to what would be used in making crystalline cells, is used. By using no silicon or a sharply reduced amount of silicon, thin-film products seemed like a good idea two years ago when silicon was in short supply.
But now, silicon is more plentiful and the economic advantage that was once enjoyed by thin film has substantially eroded. The installed cost of thin-film panels is still slightly lower than crystalline. However, due to thin film’s lower efficiency, it takes up a correspondingly larger footprint than crystalline PV to achieve the same watt-hours of production, and has been largely relegated to ground-mount solar projects where real estate is not as tight of a commodity as roof space would be.
Regular Old PV
High-efficiency modules like those made by SunPower achieve around 20% panel efficiency and lead the industry in efficiency ratings for crystalline panels, however, these panels are costly and many customers are looking for a different balance of efficiency and cost per watt. Currently, the most popular panels are “regular old PV” panels. These mid-range efficiency panels, found on the lower end of the monocrystalline efficiency range, or on the higher end of multicrystalline (aka polycrystalline) range, come in at around 15% overall panel efficiency. Aside from small improvements in manufacturing processes leading to better durability and efficiency, and large improvements in wholesale cost, little has changed with respect to these panels in the past few years.
But change has come to this segment from other directions. In a typical residential installation, the PV panels only account for about 35% of the total project cost. The remainder of the cost is found in ancillary equipment such as hardware, installation materials, and labor. The majority of the progress made in the area of plain old solar PV has been made in this area─improvements in the balance-of-system items like simple, nearly plug-and-play inverters with built-in monitoring, and better mounting and racking solutions, both of which save on installation labor cost. Other advances can be found in improved software tools like the latest version of PV Watts, and formal training programs like those offered by AEE Solar are becoming more available in all parts of the country. This allows for better system designs performed by properly trained and equipped installers.
Concentrated PV (CPV)
Solar concentrators make excellent use of silicon and have become popular for the same reason as thin-film PV, that is, less use of costly silicon. The advantage comes from the fact that the mirrors used to concentrate the solar energy are cheaper than extra silicon cells. Advances in the area are continuing, with the latest efficiency record now standing at 43% achieved by the University of New South Wales. CPV continues to struggle for market penetration due in part to the current low cost of silicon, and a major challenge that CPV makers are still struggling with is in developing low cost and reliable tracking systems. Tracking systems are currently deployed successfully only in large-scale projects where ongoing maintenance and personnel costs are baked into the business plan. To reach the small system market, cost-effective trackers must be built that will function unattended and with little maintenance over long periods of time.
All in all, significant progress has recently been made in the photovoltaics industry, some at the technology level and others related to regulatory, financial and market issues that affect producers, integrators and consumers in a positive way.
John Williams is Chief Operating Officer at Solar Panels Plus, LLC (http://www.solarpanelsplus.com/).
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